Smart Money scoring methodology

A wallet's leaderboard rank isn't raw P&L — it's a composite that rewards both *performance* and *consistency*. We publish this explicitly so you can judge whether the ranking matches your definition of "smart."

Inputs

• Trade history — every OrderFilled event from the Polymarket CTF Exchange contract, indexed per wallet.
• Market outcomes — resolved markets provide the ground truth for realized P&L.
• Liquidity snapshots — used to simulate realistic slippage for a copy-trader entering the same positions.

Metrics computed

• P&L — realized USDC profit/loss at market resolution.
• Copy P&L — P&L simulated for a copy-trader entering at liquidity-adjusted prices (not the wallet's own fills).
• ROI — total return divided by capital deployed.
• Win rate — percentage of resolved markets where the wallet finished in profit.
• Trade count — how active the wallet is (sample size matters).

Windows

We compute all metrics across three windows: 30d, 90d, and all. Wallets score independently in each, so a wallet strong over 90 days but quiet recently won't dominate the 30-day board.

Composite score

The composite is a weighted combination of copy-P&L, ROI, and win rate, with a sample-size floor (wallets under 10 resolved trades in a window are excluded). We publish the raw component numbers alongside the composite so you can form your own view.

Known limitations

• Unrealized P&L from open positions isn't counted — the score is deliberately conservative.
• Slippage simulation uses snapshot liquidity, not order-book replay. It's an approximation, not a backtest.
• Wallets that split activity across many addresses look less active than they are. We don't cluster addresses automatically.